FACTOZ
Global Market Intelligence
Daily Intelligence Brief
Wednesday, March 25, 2026
Pre-Market Edition · Before 09:30 ET
Day 25 of the conflict. A formal 15-point U.S. peace plan is now in Iranian hands, Pakistan is mediating, and in-person talks could begin as soon as Friday. Futures are higher. Oil is lower. The diplomatic window is real — but so is Iran’s defiance.
US · Europe · LATAM · Asia · Energy
✓ DIPLOMATIC BREAKTHROUGH SIGNAL: The U.S. has formally delivered a 15-point peace plan to Iran via Pakistani intermediaries. AP, NBC, and the NYT all confirmed the plan is in Iranian hands. An in-person U.S./Iran meeting could be held as soon as Friday in Islamabad. Stock futures are up 0.9%–1.0%. Brent dropped below $100. 10-year Treasury yields fell 7 basis points to 4.33%.
⚠ IRAN PUSHBACK: Iran’s military spokesperson publicly mocked Washington’s ceasefire effort. “Have your internal conflicts reached the point where you are negotiating with yourselves?” Tehran continues to deny direct or indirect talks. Iran struck Kuwait International Airport overnight, sparking a large fire. The IRGC launched seven waves of missiles at Israel on Tuesday. Fighting is ongoing and intensifying even as diplomacy advances.
ℹ DATA TODAY: February Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET) — industrial investment signal. February Import Price Index already out: +1.3% MoM, biggest monthly gain in nearly four years, exceeding the +0.6% estimate. Paychex (PAYX) beat fiscal Q3 estimates premarket — EPS $1.71 vs $1.67, revenue $1.81B vs $1.78B. Raised full-year guidance.
Tuesday Close — Session Scorecard
S&P 500
6,556
▼ -0.37% Tue · -4.7% YTD
Dow Jones
46,124
▼ -84 pts · -0.18%
Nasdaq
21,762
▼ -0.84% · -6.2% YTD
Brent Crude
$104.49
▲ +4.55% Tue rebound
WTI Crude
$92.35
▲ +4.79% Tue
10-Yr Yield
4.33%
▼ -7bps on peace plan hopes
2-Yr Yield
3.86%
▼ -7bps · Curve steepening
Wednesday Premarket Futures — Peace Plan Bid
S&P 500 Futs
+0.9%
Broad risk-on
Dow Futs
+548 pts
+1.2% · Strong bid
Nasdaq 100 Futs
+1.0%
Tech leading
Brent Crude
~$100
▼ -4% on peace signal
Overnight Developments
Wednesday opens as the most substantively positive morning of the conflict to date — and the distinction matters. Monday’s rally was built on an unverified Truth Social post. Today’s bid is built on a confirmed, formal 15-point peace plan, delivered through Pakistani diplomatic channels, with three independent news organizations confirming Iran has received it. That is a categorically different signal. Stock futures are up 0.9% to 1.0%, Brent crude is below $100, the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen 7 basis points to 4.33%, and Asia-Pacific markets closed solidly higher, with South Korea’s KOSPI up 1.59% and Australia’s ASX 200 up 1.85%.
The texture of the diplomatic moment is complex. Trump declared in the Oval Office Tuesday that “this war has been won” and that Iran has already agreed it will never have a nuclear weapon — a claim Iran has not confirmed. The U.S. peace plan was reportedly transmitted via Pakistan, which has offered to host in-person talks that could occur as soon as Friday in Islamabad. A Gulf official told NBC News that Pakistan has been passing messages between Washington and Tehran for two days. The Egyptian official described the plan as “a comprehensive deal.”
Against this constructive backdrop, Iran’s military response has been to intensify its denials and its attacks simultaneously. Iran launched seven waves of missiles at Israel on Tuesday. Iranian forces struck Kuwait International Airport overnight, sparking a large fire and expanding the geographic footprint of Iranian offensive action. Iran’s military spokesperson stated: “Don’t dress up your defeat as an agreement. Your era of empty promises has come to an end.” Iran is publicly demanding conditions that include the closure of all American bases in the Gulf, reparations for attacks, and a permanent Hormuz transit fee system — terms the U.S. will not accept. The market is choosing to price the diplomatic momentum, not Iran’s stated terms. That is a calculated bet on process over position, and it is a bet that can unwind rapidly on a single hardline statement from Tehran.
Top Stories This Morning
Diplomacy — Day 25
U.S. Delivers Formal 15-Point Peace Plan to Iran via Pakistan — In-Person Talks Possible as Soon as Friday in Islamabad
The New York Times first reported Tuesday that the U.S. sent a comprehensive 15-point peace proposal to Iran through Pakistani intermediaries. The AP and NBC News confirmed Wednesday morning that the plan is in Iranian hands. Pakistan has offered to host in-person talks, with Egyptian and Pakistani officials saying a face-to-face meeting between U.S. and Iranian negotiators could occur as early as Friday. Trump stated Tuesday from the Oval Office that negotiators including Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, Secretary Rubio, and Vice President Vance are all engaged. The plan is reported to address Iran’s ballistic missile program, nuclear enrichment, and maritime routes including the Strait of Hormuz. Israel’s Channel 12 published 14 reported points of the plan, noting it requires Iran to dismantle nuclear capabilities and commit permanently to zero nuclear weapons — terms Tehran has publicly rejected in its hardline statements.
Geopolitics — Escalation Parallel
Iran Struck Kuwait International Airport Overnight — Gulf States Now Directly in the Line of Fire as Diplomacy Advances
Even as the peace plan circulates, Iran launched strikes on Kuwait International Airport overnight, igniting a large fire at one of the Gulf’s busiest civilian aviation hubs. Iran launched seven waves of missiles at Israel on Tuesday. The Israeli military announced new wide-scale attacks on Iran early Wednesday, including strikes on a submarine and underwater research center in Isfahan — described as the only facility in Iran responsible for designing and developing submarines for its navy. Iran has warned that any strike on its power infrastructure will result in retaliation against U.S. and Israeli energy and desalination assets across the region. The parallel tracks of intensifying military activity and advancing diplomacy define the current paradox. Gulf states are now directly engaged as targets, further widening regional exposure.
Inflation — Import Prices
February Import Prices Rose 1.3% MoM — Biggest Monthly Gain in Nearly Four Years, Pre-Conflict Data Already Alarming
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that import prices surged 1.3% in February — more than double the +0.6% consensus estimate and the largest monthly gain in nearly four years. Export prices jumped 1.5%, also well ahead of the 0.6% January gain. Critically, this data reflects February conditions — before the full Hormuz closure and the energy shock fully transmitted into the supply chain. February’s import price data mirrors March 2022 levels, just months before CPI peaked above 9%. The implications for the Fed are severe: if the pre-conflict import price pipeline was already this hot, the March and April readings incorporating the full oil shock will be structurally elevated. This data point alone justifies the market’s current pricing of zero rate cuts in 2026.
Earnings — Paychex
Paychex Beats Q3 Estimates and Reaffirms Full-Year Guidance — A Labor Market Confidence Signal
Paychex reported fiscal Q3 2026 EPS of $1.71 versus the $1.67 consensus estimate on revenue of $1.81 billion versus $1.78 billion expected. The company also reaffirmed its full-year earnings and revenue growth outlook — a meaningful signal of confidence given the macro backdrop. Shares rose approximately 4% in premarket trading. As a payroll-processing and human capital management company serving small to mid-size businesses, Paychex’s ability to reaffirm guidance through the Iran conflict and energy shock is significant. It suggests that the SMB hiring environment, while softening, has not yet entered the demand destruction territory that would accompany a full recession scenario. This is one of the week’s most underappreciated constructive data points for the labor market thesis.
Iran’s Conditions — The Hard Reality
Iran Is Reportedly Demanding Gulf Base Closures, Reparations, and a Permanent Hormuz Toll System — Terms Washington Cannot Accept
While markets are pricing the diplomatic momentum, Iran’s publicly stated and reported negotiating terms deserve direct attention. According to the Wall Street Journal, Tehran’s stated conditions include: the closure of all American military bases in the Gulf region, reparations for U.S. attacks on Iranian infrastructure, and a permanent system allowing Iran to collect transit fees from vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, Iran’s military has been openly charging vessels up to $2 million per voyage for passage through the Strait on an ad hoc basis, per Bloomberg. These terms are structurally incompatible with U.S. strategic interests in the region. The question is not whether Iran’s opening position is extreme — all opening positions in war-ending negotiations are — but whether both sides have enough mutual interest to find a framework that bridges an enormous gap.
Latin America
LATAM Opens Constructively — Dollar Weakness and Risk-On Tone Broadly Supportive, Oil Exporters Navigate Crude Decline
Wednesday’s peace plan signal is broadly constructive for Latin American risk assets. The dollar is softer, which provides relief across the EM currency complex. Brazil and Colombia face a nuanced picture: the diplomatic momentum that is pushing oil below $100 reduces their oil export revenue outlook relative to the peak-conflict period, but the resulting EM risk-on environment attracts capital back into the region. Chilean copper benefited from Monday’s industrial metals rebound and the subsequent risk-on tone. The Colombian presidential election continues to approach, now under six weeks away, with the risk premium in COP assets persisting irrespective of the geopolitical resolution. For broader LATAM credit, a sustained Hormuz reopening and dollar decline would be among the most powerful catalysts for spread compression since the 2022 commodity cycle peak.
The 15-Point Peace Plan — What We Know
Reported Key Terms (Israel’s Channel 12, Western Source — Unverified by TIME)
01
Iran must commit permanently to never pursuing nuclear weapons
02
Complete halt of uranium enrichment on Iranian territory
03
Transfer of all enriched material to the IAEA under an agreed timeline
04
Dismantling of Iran’s ballistic missile program
05
Full restoration of freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz
06
Cessation of all Iranian support for regional proxy forces
Note: Iran’s stated counter-conditions include: closure of all U.S. Gulf bases, reparations for attacks, and a permanent Iranian toll system on Hormuz transit — none of which the U.S. will accept as preconditions.
Strait of Hormuz — Day 25 Status Tracker
Day 25 — Formal Peace Plan Delivered
DIPLOMACY ACTIVE · STRAIT STILL CLOSED · 3 DAYS REMAIN IN WINDOW
15-point U.S. peace plan confirmed in Iranian hands via Pakistani intermediaries. Egypt, Pakistan, and Gulf officials are all acting as facilitators. In-person talks could occur as soon as Friday in Islamabad. This is the most substantive diplomatic development since the war began on February 28.
Iran has not accepted the plan and publicly dismissed it. Iran’s military stated: “Don’t dress up your defeat as an agreement.” Iran’s stated terms — U.S. base closures, reparations, Hormuz toll rights — are not negotiable opening positions the U.S. will meet.
Strait remains closed. Only five ships transited Monday, six on Tuesday. On most days since the war began, not a single ship has passed through. Iran is now charging up to $2 million per voyage on an ad hoc basis to select vessels it permits to transit.
Iran struck Kuwait International Airport overnight — a significant escalation into civilian aviation infrastructure. Iran launched seven waves of missiles at Israel on Tuesday. The geographic footprint of Iranian offensive action continues to expand even as diplomacy advances.
Five-day postponement window expires approximately Saturday, March 28 — three days from today. The peace plan process gives Trump political cover to extend the postponement. If Friday talks in Islamabad materialize, the window almost certainly extends. If Iran publicly rejects the plan before Friday, markets reprice escalation risk immediately.
Brent crude below $100 for the first time since March 11 on the peace plan signal. WTI approaching $88. Goldman Sachs still forecasts $110 Brent through April. At 5% of normal Hormuz flows, the physical supply disruption has not ended — only the escalation premium is deflating.
Three Things to Watch Today
Session Catalysts — Ranked by Impact
01
Any Iranian official response to the 15-point peace plan during Wednesday trading hours. Iran’s military and diplomatic spokespeople have been the primary market movers throughout this conflict. A hardened public rejection of the plan during U.S. trading hours would reverse the morning bid immediately. A softer “we are studying the proposal” type of language, even without acceptance, would be treated as bullish by markets priced for the worst. Watch for statements from Foreign Minister Araghchi and the IRGC command specifically — they operate on different messaging tracks and often contradict each other on diplomatic signals.
02
February Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET. Consensus expects a +1.1% headline gain. This data reflects February business investment decisions — made before the Iran conflict began on February 28. As a result, it is a clean read on the industrial economy’s pre-war trajectory. Combined with this morning’s import price shock (+1.3% MoM vs +0.6% expected), the data will either confirm or challenge the view that inflationary pressures were already accelerating before the oil shock. A weak reading would suggest the economy was already decelerating into the conflict. A strong reading provides a more resilient base-case for the growth outlook.
03
Whether the S&P 500 can decisively reclaim its 200-day moving average of approximately 6,624. The index has been trading below this technical threshold since closing at 6,556 on Tuesday. A confirmed close above 6,624 on Wednesday — the third attempt in five sessions — would represent a meaningful technical development that triggers systematic buying from quantitative strategies. The peace plan momentum entering the session is the strongest fundamental case for reclaiming that level. The S&P 500’s year-to-date loss stands at approximately 4.7%, and restoring the 200-day average support would change the intermediate-term technical picture from bearish to neutral.
Factoz Morning View
Editorial Assessment — Wednesday, March 25, 2026
Wednesday is the first morning since February 28 where the diplomatic case for optimism is built on confirmed facts rather than unverified claims. A formal peace plan is in Iranian hands. Pakistan is mediating. In-person talks are scheduled for potentially as soon as Friday. That is process — and in conflict resolution, process is everything. The market is correct to bid on it.
“Just one headline has the potential to send oil prices and Treasury yields meaningfully higher or lower.” — Citi analysts, March 25, 2026
The Factoz view is that this is the most credible de-escalation signal of the conflict — but it remains a signal, not an outcome. Iran’s publicly stated conditions are so far from U.S. red lines that the gap between opening positions is extraordinary. The history of war termination negotiations is that they require back-channel compromises invisible to markets until a deal is announced. The question is whether those back-channel compromises are occurring alongside the hardline public rhetoric. We do not know. The market is pricing that they are.
February’s import price data this morning — +1.3% MoM against a +0.6% estimate — is a reminder that the inflation picture was already deteriorating before the oil shock arrived. Even a ceasefire does not undo March and April’s pipeline inflation. The Fed remains structurally constrained. That is the macro reality that persists beyond any geopolitical resolution.
Factoz positioning for Wednesday: The peace plan signal justifies a modest reduction in defensive overweights if the S&P 500 can reclaim its 200-day moving average on confirmed volume. Energy remains a hold rather than an add — Brent below $100 compresses the near-term upside, though any breakdown in talks would restore the premium instantly. AI infrastructure names (Micron, Oracle, Nvidia) remain medium-term conviction buys. Paychex’s clean quarter is a reminder that the labor market has not broken. The three days between now and the five-day window expiry on Saturday are the most consequential stretch of the crisis.
FACTOZ · Daily Intelligence Brief · Wednesday, March 25, 2026
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Day 25 · 3 Days Remain in Window